John Peterson Challenge

John Peterson is a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha. He is incessantly wrong about TSLA. Today I called him on it and issued a challenge. The data is starting to come in as of today.

In the comments section of his post he wrote:

Mr. Musk is the most amazing promoter I’ve ever seen and his propensity for extreme risk is world class. His dreams are immense and his ability to make some of those dreams reality is unquestioned. In the Tesla casino there are 64 numbers on the roulette wheel. You’ll get a double if the wheel comes up 00 and you’ll get to keep your money if the wheel comes up 0, all the other spaces on the board are losers. Do you feel lucky?

To which I replied:

So you are saying that if you own TSLA your chances of making money on that investment, going forward, is 1 in 64? (62 losers, one break even, one winner – BTW, there are 36 numbers + 0/00 on a real roulette wheel (?)) In what timeframe? A day? A week, a month, a year, a decade? Actually, please pick 64 dates starting from today forward, publish them, and we’ll see if TSLA is above yesterday’s closing price of 207.52. If you don’t pick them, I suggest monthly for the next 64 months. Please do this publicly and stand behind what you say.

And then an hour later added:

Until I hear back from John, I’ll be keeping a ‘John Petersen Challenge’ on my blog starting after market close today. I will use the following 64 dates: today, 4/8; the remaining Mondays in April, 4/14, 4/21, 4/28; and the close of trading on the first Monday of every month from 5/5 though the next 60 months, ending on the close of trading on Monday, April 1, 2019 (ironic). I’ll declare victory for John if the price of TSLA is at or below 207.52 on 63 of 64 of those dates.

So the results of the first data point are in!

Close on 4/7: 207.52
Close on 4/8: 215.46
Gain: +7.94

So John will win the challenge if he’s correct for the next 63 data points. Is Warren Buffet in the house? I think I have another pool that essentially impossible to win.

Selling Teslas in States that Require Dealerships – Add Your Vote!

Our Newest Family Member

Our timeline with Tesla, while unique to us, is probably not rare. It looks something like this:

Sometime in 2010: Somehow became vaguely familiar with Tesla. I am frankly shocked that I can’t remember the exact moment, but honestly, I can’t. Curiosity, no more.

Summer 2011: Since both of our cars were nearing a decade old, and my wife’s hade >125K miles on it, I started looking more earnestly at cars and came back to the Model S. Again, I would have thought the date where I mentally committed to, “I’m going to get that car” would be seared in my memory. Alas, no. I show it to my wife, who is mildly interested, but basically says, “…if you want to…”

February 1, 2012: I want to. We reserve our Model S, a blue S85. The waiting begins…

August 15, 2012: We go to Austin to do our ‘Get Amped’ test drive. I take a day off from work (what?) and take my wife and kids up for the drive. Three great quotes:

Eva (wife): This is disappointing (driving home in our 5-series BMW). Think about that statement.

Isabella (daughter): That was cool (she’s a teenager, NOTHING I do is cool)

Nicolas (son): Can we get a Signature?

Fall 2012: Buy our first shares of TSLA.

January 9, 2013: Car delivered, I’m in Cleveland, Eva gets dsm363 to park the car in our garage because she’s so freaked to drive it.

January 10, 2013: Get text from Eva while in the Cleveland airport, “Pica (dog) and I are picking up the kids”. What the heck, the dog rides in the car before I do?!?

January 24, 2013: Reserve our Model X for the touchscreen of our Model S!

February-March 2013: Buy as much TSLA as is reasonable for us, because after owning the car for just a few days I realize, “Tesla has the jump on the future – a HUGE jump”.

Early-October 2013: While trolling, I notice there is a Founder’s Edition highlighted in the ‘Teslas for Sale’ section. While we don’t need another one, we also are now pretty aware that our Model X is still at least 18 months away. Why not get it, sell our last ICE (BMW), and then decide when it’s time to configure the X whether we need 3 electric cars or not (not).

Late-October 2013: No one bids on the car (???) and so I call the broker and negotiate a sale. Turns out the car is F00014, was bought by JB Straubel for his dad, who loved it but was moving back to a roadster. It was the car from the first (good) NY Times review in summer 2012. And also, apparently F00013 is Sergey Brin’s car. How cool is that!?!

November-December 2013: Can’t get transport lined up for the car, it’s 300 miles north of Chicago in the mitten thumb of Wisconsin in a garage. Finally, we get tesla to pick it up, service it in Chicago, and transport it to San Antonio in January 2014.

So here we are, proud owners of a 2012 S85, a 2012 P85 Founder’s Edition, and a reservation holder for a Model X. We haven’t sold a share of TSLA either! Enjoy the new addition in pictures!