How Many Cars Can Tesla Sell

In 2012, the three largest luxury car makers – BMW, Mercedes Benz, and Lexus – sold over 799,000 cars in the US, up from about 691,000 cars the year before. In 2011, the top ten luxury car makers sold just over 1.5M cars in the US. The tenth largest brand, Volvo, sold 65,000. Porsche sold about 35,000. Porsche sold 140,000 worldwide in 2012 and hope to sell 200,000 worldwide by 2018

Where does Tesla fit in:

2013 – First Full Year Model S Production?

model-s
2015 – First Full Year Model X Production?

Tesla Model X
2017 – First Full Year Gen 3 Production?

I say as follows for US only:

Start Model S in 2012 (3,000?)

2013 – 25,000 Model S

Start Model X in 2014, like Model S start in 2012 (3,000?)

2015 – 40,000 Model S, 15,000 Model X

Start Gen III in 2016, like Model S start in 2012 and Model X start in 2014 (3,000?)

2017 – 40,000 Model S, 15,000 Model X, 40,000 Gen 3

2019 – 40,000 Model S, 15,000 Model X, 150,000 Gen 3

Porsche’s Market cap today is $20B, BMW’s is $50B. Tesla’s is $4B.

Tesla could need to be making nearly 100,000 cars a year in four years. 200,000 in six years (if Gen III is the home run we think it might be) Can they? If loosely as profitable as Porsche, would the market cap follow? Is Tesla a 5-bagger. Or does it have an even greater upside?

One response to “How Many Cars Can Tesla Sell

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