John Peterson Challenge

John Peterson is a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha. He is incessantly wrong about TSLA. Today I called him on it and issued a challenge. The data is starting to come in as of today.

In the comments section of his post he wrote:

Mr. Musk is the most amazing promoter I’ve ever seen and his propensity for extreme risk is world class. His dreams are immense and his ability to make some of those dreams reality is unquestioned. In the Tesla casino there are 64 numbers on the roulette wheel. You’ll get a double if the wheel comes up 00 and you’ll get to keep your money if the wheel comes up 0, all the other spaces on the board are losers. Do you feel lucky?

To which I replied:

So you are saying that if you own TSLA your chances of making money on that investment, going forward, is 1 in 64? (62 losers, one break even, one winner – BTW, there are 36 numbers + 0/00 on a real roulette wheel (?)) In what timeframe? A day? A week, a month, a year, a decade? Actually, please pick 64 dates starting from today forward, publish them, and we’ll see if TSLA is above yesterday’s closing price of 207.52. If you don’t pick them, I suggest monthly for the next 64 months. Please do this publicly and stand behind what you say.

And then an hour later added:

Until I hear back from John, I’ll be keeping a ‘John Petersen Challenge’ on my blog starting after market close today. I will use the following 64 dates: today, 4/8; the remaining Mondays in April, 4/14, 4/21, 4/28; and the close of trading on the first Monday of every month from 5/5 though the next 60 months, ending on the close of trading on Monday, April 1, 2019 (ironic). I’ll declare victory for John if the price of TSLA is at or below 207.52 on 63 of 64 of those dates.

So the results of the first data point are in!

Close on 4/7: 207.52
Close on 4/8: 215.46
Gain: +7.94

So John will win the challenge if he’s correct for the next 63 data points. Is Warren Buffet in the house? I think I have another pool that essentially impossible to win.


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