John Peterson Challenge – Update

OK, 8 data points are in on the John Peterson Challenge, and I sure hope you didn’t bet with John. To refresh your memory, On 4/7 John wrote a Seeking Alpha article where he indicated if you invested in TSLA, you would make money 1 time out of 64, break even 1 time out of 64, and lose money 62 times out of 64. In the comments section I asked John to pick 64 data points for verification, and when he didn’t respond, I chose 64 being the next 4 Mondays of April and the first Monday of every month from May 2014 until April of 2019. Well, as of today we have 8 data points, with the reference TSLA value being the close on 4/7/14 of 207.52. Here’s the data to date:

Close on 4/7: 207.52

Close on 4/8: 215.46 Gain: +7.94 TSLA wins

Close on 4/14: 198.09 Loss: -9.43 JP wins

Close on 4/21: 204.38 Loss: -3.14 JP wins

Close on 4/28: 198.51 Loss: -9.01 JP wins

Close on 5/5: 216.61 Gain: +9.09 TSLA wins

Close on 6/2: 204.70 Loss: -2.82 JP wins

Close on 7/7: 222.66 Gain: +15.14 TSLA wins

Close on 8/4: 238.52 Gain 31.00 TSLA wins

So TSLA wins 4 and JP wins 4. Wouldn’t be bad for JP except for two things – he said he’d win 62 of 64 times (oops) and as of today, he’s $31 in the hole (oopsx2). I hope none of you invested with him. BTW, John edited out the section of that article where he said TSLA would lose money 62 of 64 times. Hmmmm…

TMC Connect about to Begin!

Big buzz at TMC Connect, ready to get started!



Coffee Break. Diarmud was great! Notes coming soon.


Diarmud O’Donell’ Talk

Tesla grow stores and sc by 75%
Grow superchargers by 200%

China reception extraordinary
Last 5 year plan stipulated wide eV adoption
New leadership doubling down on targets
Consistent pricing really resonated, differs from peers

Setting up urban supercharging (China too)

Fremont Factory
High volume Assembly Line Summer 2014
High. Volume Body Center Early 2015

Dealership Fight
‘We work in the light of day, they work in the dark of night’

Opens up the avenue for Model 3
Also allows Tesla to participate in energy storage.
Storage unlocks grid potential for renewables.
Site Selection based on labor, energy, logistics
Manufacturing, technology, public policy and finance key to site selection.

Design aesthetic of the car, high tech, clean, not fussy. Not cocooning. First visible and tactile change is the seats. Console coming. Still a focus.

Nice guy, smart guy.

Steve Jurvetson

Steve spoke about a wide range of issues, sporadically captured below. Very brilliant guy.

Curve of Moore’s Law for last 110 years, will keep going forever when considering technology as a whole.

Every idea is a combination of other ideas. Leads to a combinatorial effect of idea creation.

Human race will prosper mightily in the years ahead, because ideas are having sex with each other like never before. From Rational Optimist.

In the next 6 years, 3 billion people will come online for the first time. Will create more invention and progress than in human history.

Simulators will lead to an explosion to inventions. Robotics and AI are in the midst of this. Every industry will be revolutionized by information technology. How you process information will be what sets companies apart.

Ability to go where you want to go is what attracts us to cars – that’s why driverless cars will still be attractive to people, teens.

With Castrol in room, Sixth Sense moment, “I see dead people”.

200,000,000 electric bikes/motorcycles in China. 1300 ebike manufacturers in China.

SpaceX – Commercial launch possibilities are huge. Costs of launches will go down 10x with reusable rockets.

Getting out of the design space of iteratively improving the existing conditions is the disruptive chance.

Machine learning and deep learning (mimicking the human brain, exceeding human abilities) is the next big thing.


John Peterson Challenge

John Peterson is a frequent contributor to Seeking Alpha. He is incessantly wrong about TSLA. Today I called him on it and issued a challenge. The data is starting to come in as of today.

In the comments section of his post he wrote:

Mr. Musk is the most amazing promoter I’ve ever seen and his propensity for extreme risk is world class. His dreams are immense and his ability to make some of those dreams reality is unquestioned. In the Tesla casino there are 64 numbers on the roulette wheel. You’ll get a double if the wheel comes up 00 and you’ll get to keep your money if the wheel comes up 0, all the other spaces on the board are losers. Do you feel lucky?

To which I replied:

So you are saying that if you own TSLA your chances of making money on that investment, going forward, is 1 in 64? (62 losers, one break even, one winner – BTW, there are 36 numbers + 0/00 on a real roulette wheel (?)) In what timeframe? A day? A week, a month, a year, a decade? Actually, please pick 64 dates starting from today forward, publish them, and we’ll see if TSLA is above yesterday’s closing price of 207.52. If you don’t pick them, I suggest monthly for the next 64 months. Please do this publicly and stand behind what you say.

And then an hour later added:

Until I hear back from John, I’ll be keeping a ‘John Petersen Challenge’ on my blog starting after market close today. I will use the following 64 dates: today, 4/8; the remaining Mondays in April, 4/14, 4/21, 4/28; and the close of trading on the first Monday of every month from 5/5 though the next 60 months, ending on the close of trading on Monday, April 1, 2019 (ironic). I’ll declare victory for John if the price of TSLA is at or below 207.52 on 63 of 64 of those dates.

So the results of the first data point are in!

Close on 4/7: 207.52
Close on 4/8: 215.46
Gain: +7.94

So John will win the challenge if he’s correct for the next 63 data points. Is Warren Buffet in the house? I think I have another pool that essentially impossible to win.